Steam wishlist tracking
Of 14,084 paid Steam games released in 2024, 79.6% had fewer than 50 reviews after 12 months (Z02Z/Fronkon, 27 June 2026). That cohort does not publish a wishlist threshold. The audit reads the slope of your curve, then the nuance.
Velocity is measurable. Wishlist thresholds are folklore.
Two things are true at once. Post-launch velocity was the dominant failure in 38% of the launches we diagnosed by hand — second only to distribution. And no credible public dataset supports the specific wishlist thresholds that circulate as gospel.
So we do not sell you a number to hit. A raw wishlist count says almost nothing on its own: ten thousand wishlists accumulated over three years from bundle traffic behaves nothing like two thousand accumulated in six weeks from genre-matched creator coverage. The second one converts.
What we audit is the curve: its slope, its sources, its conversion behaviour, and whether the last four weeks are faster or slower than the four before them.
Source — 14,084 paid Steam releases, 2024 cohort. Method and limits
The curve, read properly.
Trajectory read
Slope over time, not a total. Accelerating, flat, or decaying — and since when.
Source attribution
Where the wishlists came from: Steam discovery, events, creators, paid, external. Each behaves differently at launch.
Velocity plan
What to work in the next ninety days to move the slope, in priority order.
Weekly tracking setup
The three numbers worth checking every week, and the thresholds that should make you act.
48 hours, then a decision.
Pull the data
Steamworks wishlist reports, traffic breakdown, event spikes. Read against your release window.
Separate the sources
A spike from a festival and a spike from a creator are different assets. We split them before drawing conclusions.
Test the conversion
Page visits against wishlist adds. This is where a store page problem shows up as a number rather than an opinion.
Write the plan
Ranked actions for the next ninety days, with what to measure weekly to know whether they worked.
Balatro converted attention it had already earned.
A demo that circulated, creators who picked it up, and a wishlist base that was moving fast before release rather than sitting large and stale. Slope beat size — which is exactly what a raw wishlist target hides.
READ THE BALATRO TEARDOWN →Public case study. Not a Shypiard client.
What does the audit cost?
Nothing. It is part of the free diagnostic, delivered in writing within 48 hours, with no obligation to work with us afterwards.
So how many wishlists do we actually need?
There is no honest universal answer, and we would rather say so than invent one. What matters is whether the curve is accelerating into launch and where the additions come from. We can tell you whether yours is healthy for your genre and window.
What access do you need?
Read access to your Steamworks wishlist and traffic reports, or exported CSVs if you prefer not to grant access.
Can you audit a game that has already launched?
Yes. After release the same reading applies to velocity — reviews, concurrents, sustained coverage — instead of wishlists.
What happens after the audit?
The Studio plan ($100 / month) keeps the reading going: your wishlists and reviews compared with similar games every week, and your next actions prepared. It is included for 90 days in the Launch program, and you can pause or cancel it.
Is your curve accelerating?
This audit is part of the free diagnostic: your wishlist trajectory read in writing within 48 hours, and whether the number you have is the number you think it is.